The Final Four is upon us my friends. That’s right, only four weeks left in the regular season to earn the right to play in Weeks 14-16 (as my guy Corey Parson always says). Shoutout to my good friend Corey, as he embarks on a new opportunity that I know he will shine in, and it was a blast having him co-host The Walkthrough podcast for the first half of the season with me and Matt Modica.
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We enter the crucial Week 10 and are faced with the scary reality of six teams on a bye, along with injuries, question marks, and game-time decisions all on our plate as we set lineups and try to have a successful week ahead.
As for the bye weeks, I guess it could be worse, as two of the teams (Denver and Washington) really aren’t that fantasy friendly, so no big losses there. Nevertheless, teams are looking to their benches and depth to get them through weeks like this, and they’ll probably have to rely on players they haven’t had to yet, or use waiver wire adds to bail them out.
I know waivers run before my weekly article comes out, but a couple names to maybe help you out this week in deeper leagues, if available, are coming out of the Miami/Colts game, with wide receivers DeVante Parker and Zach Pascal at the top of the list. And if you’re in need of tight end help, as most people are (especially with the Evan Engram injury), then Mike Gesicki is going to play a bigger role down the stretch for Miami, after the loss of Preston Williams this past week. Engram owners should be targeting Gesicki to fill in not only this week, but maybe for the remainder of the season, if this Engram injury shuts him down. I honestly don’t know if you can win a fantasy title this year in deep competitive leagues without one of the top six or seven tight ends. There is just way too big of a drop-off at the position at this point.
Before we jump into the games I wanted to give another shout out to the biggest Ravens fan alive, Jason from the comments section last week, who hated my belief in the previously undefeated Patriots and my breakdown of the game, and let me know so before…
…and after the game:
Props to you Jason, not the first or last time I will be wrong about a game! As a prize, we will send you a personally autographed knitted sweater worn by our very own Nando Di Fino. Make sure you check your mailbox and enjoy! (Ed. note: I don’t give up my knitted sweaters that easily! How about free shots at the Greenwich Street Tavern in NYC? I can arrange that through the fun owner, Joe!)
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Ok, as always we start off with the Thursday night game, and you may judge me here but I’m excited for this one and I think we are in for a fantasy-friendly contest. It’s take 10 for the “still waiting on Mike Williams to score a touchdown” fan group that I think I’m president of at this point, but all we can do now is will it into happening. There was good news, though, as he did go over 100 yards on three catches last week, but his three targets leave much to be desired.
The Raiders secondary is a mess, and with Hunter Henry running on all cylinders and establishing himself in past weeks as Philip Rivers’ top target, I can see both he and Williams going over 100 yards this Thursday night. Keenan Allen continues to under-produce for fantasy owners and you have to assume he still is not over that hamstring issue from weeks ago and is just gutting it out. I think Rivers is a Top 6 QB in fantasy this week and hangs a 300/3 TD game on the Raiders, as the Chargers continue to stay hot and get their season turned around with another win as they march on to what I’m predicting is a playoff appearance as a wild card winner after a brutal start to the season.
Derek Carr continues to be a valuable late-round fantasy QB selection and if he has to play catch-up against the Chargers, he can find himself right back in that Top 10 fantasy QB conversation for this week. He is one of the best bye-week replacements for you Watson/Wentz/Brady owners. Let’s hope he can get Darren Waller back on track after a couple slow weeks, as teams are starting to focus in on Waller now, trying to take him out of the game. Tyrell Williams being back healthy should help take away some attention from Waller going forward. Let’s say 34 -21 Chargers to start Week 10.
A couple nice games are up on the Week 10 schedule but let’s talk first about the game I’m most excited about — and fantasy fans, you should be too: The Tampa Bay Bucs vs the Arizona Cardinals!! Did you spit your morning coffee on the computer screen just now reading that? Ok, hope not, but I’m not crazy folks, this is the game I’m looking forward to the most and has the potential for big numbers.
Did you watch the Tampa/Seattle game last week? Tampa Bay now gets another secondary to take advantage of with their dynamic one-two punch of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who both can safely be ranked in the Top 10 every week for the remainder of the year, which is tough to do. They are the 2019 version of Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Evans has had two straight monster games while Godwin has taken a little bit of a back seat, but I think we have a good chance of seeing that flip this upcoming week vs. Arizona. I expect Evans to see more of Patrick Peterson than Godwin will. Ronald Jones is also entering the RB2 conversation as Bruce Arians has said this week that he deserves to start — and with his snap share up I expect him to now enter fantasy lineups going forward. I just wish he could contribute more in the pass game so he’s not so TD-reliant.
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For Arizona, this looks to be a prime bounce-back spot for Christian Kirk after the 49ers shut him down with a heavy dose of Richard Sherman. Kirk won’t have that problem this week vs. Tampa’s secondary and has established himself as Kyler Murray’s undisputed top target, as Larry Fitzgerald continues to go missing in action for his fantasy owners. David Johnson is due back for this game and will only help matters as another weapon in the pass game out of the backfield for Murray. Kenyan Drake had a hell of a performance last week but my money is on that being a one time deal as his volume will undoubtedly be scaled back with a healthy Johnson back in the lineup. Now, don’t get me wrong, I still think Drake will play a valuable role for fantasy owners this week and going forward until Chase Edmonds comes back to form a dreaded three-man backfield; but until then I think we are looking at a 60/40 Johnson/Drake split of the backfield, making Drake still a low-end RB2/Flex play especially in a game like the one this week. Jameis Winston and Murray are two of my favorite Week 10 fantasy quarterbacks and I have both in my Top 6 this week (Drew Brees, Lamar Jackson, ARod, Winston, Murray, Rivers). Patrick Mahomes would enter the Top 6 if he does in fact come back this week. I keep thinking back to that Rams/Bucs shootout earlier in the year and although last week’s Tampa/Seattle game was close, I think we can see a 45-38 type of game from these two this week. Let’s hope both offenses are clicking on Sunday.
Runner up to the Tampa/Arizona game has to be the Falcons and Saints, fresh off their bye, giving Alvin Kamara time to get healthy and welcome him back to his smash spot that awaits him. This is simply the dream spot for both Kamara and Michael Thomas as they get this Falcons team for the first of two times in the next four weeks, to the delight of Saints owners trying to make a run at league titles.
The one thing I keep waiting on is for someone else to step up in this pass game for New Orleans and I still think the answer is Tre’Quan Smith, who is due back this Sunday. With all the attention on Thomas and Kamara, a brilliant QB like Brees will take advantage of one-on-ones and mismatches that will occur on bad defenses like Atlanta’s, and Smith will be the biggest beneficiary. He does this with Ted Ginn already penciled in for a few big shots a game but I think Smith will be someone you can actually start on a weekly basis down the stretch.
For the Falcons, this game sets up nicely for the Big 3 in the pass game: Julio Jones, Austin Hooper and Calvin Ridley. When we last left off with Atlanta (before the bye and the Mo Sanu trade), we talked about how promising a second half these three have in front of them — especially Ridley because the Sanu deal returns targets to the offense, and the biggest factor: a terrible defense and a great QB in Matt Ryan, which should set up a lot of shootouts the rest of the way before Dan Quinn is handed his walking papers. Julio has a tough matchup this week against Marshon Lattimore, but Jones will get his and the passing volume will be there. As I see it, this sets up for a big Hooper and Ridley day, as they try and keep up with Brees and the Saints all day in the dome. I have Hooper as my TE3 overall this week, behind only Travis Kelce and Henry. I have Ridley as a WR2.
Ok, pipe down…here’s a list!
Fantasy trade deadlines are coming up! Top 10 guys I’m trading for:
- Calvin Ridley (you can get him for a good price, he’ll be a solid WR2 for your fantasy team ROS)
- Hunter Henry (think he makes run at being TE1 rest of the way)
- Golden Tate (Engram banged up, Sterling Shepard I think is done for season. heavily targeted ROS)
- Emmanuel Sanders (giddy over what he and Jimmy G can do as top target in SF)
- Robert Woods and even Josh Reynolds to a lesser degree (Cooks needs to sit out for a while)
- Sammy Watkins (yeah, I’m going there, Mahomes is back and you can get him cheap. I’ll buy a piece of that KC offense)
- Derrick Henry (the second half is where he does his damage!)
- Mohamed Sanu (Tommy Boy has a new favorite weapon at his disposal)
- Will Fuller (don’t forget about him. Should be healthy and ready after the bye)
- David Montgomery and Miles Sanders (packaging these two rookies together and think they have big second halves. I love Montgomery’s schedule and the Sanders takeover will happen, as well)
10…12, what’s the difference, right?
Moving along!
The Sunday night game between the Cowboys and Vikingsis one I’m really looking forward to, as it pits two of the best running backs in the NFL against each other, in a matchup of Dalvin Cook vs. Zeke Elliott. I’m sticking with Dallas not only in this game but as a team that will win the NFC East and challenge the Saints in the NFC come this January for a spot in the Super Bowl. I know you 49ers and Packers fans are going to get upset, but I just think the Cowboys are a team that will get better and better as the season rolls on. Now, having Jason Garrett as your head coach might prevent all this but I’m sticking with them. That O-line and run game will always travel well in January and can control any game. I think the Vikings are in trouble and will miss the playoffs and will continue to miss Adam Thielen not only in this game, but I don’t think he will be ready next week and they’ll rest him through the Week 12 bye. It just might be too late after that to grab a wild card spot.
Here are my Predictions for the NFC and AFC playoffs (yeah, I know this isn’t fantasy. But humor your old pal, Chrissy Magoo)
NFC:
- Saints
- 49ers
- Dallas
- Green Bay
- Rams
- Seattle
AFC:
- Patriots
- Chiefs
- Ravens
- Texans
- Bills
- Chargers
Week 10 quick hitters
- What was that, Green Bay? Both Aarons (Rodgers and Jones) — yes I’m talking to you!
- Mahomes is back, most likely. I’d hate to have to play the Kelce and Tyreek Hill teams this week.
- It’s just about that time for Corey Davis to suck us all in again….
- Freddie Kitchens is just not head coach material. Same with Matt Nagy…and Adam Gase…and Pat Shurmur.
- Zach Pascal us a solid WR2 this week, same for DeVante Parker.
- Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett sure came through in their smash spot last week didn’t they? Big test for them this week in SF.
- I really like Josh Reynolds and Gerald Everett going forward if Brandin Cooks misses significant time. Reynolds just needed the playing time, as he showed last year when Kupp went down.
- CMC, you’re not human, sir.
- Kudos, Lamar Jackson, big time fantasy weapon
Good Luck in Week 10 everyone!! Until next time!
(Top photo: Wesley Hitt/Getty Images; gifs via GIPHY)
Chris Vaccaro has over 15 years of experience playing fantasy football in the high stakes industry including six figure winnings and a National Championship in 2013. He was inducted into the fantasy football high stakes Hall of Fame in 2015. Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisVaccaroGST
